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Fixture News

Sky Bet Play-Offs Preview

A look ahead to this weekend's action

10 May 2019

Sporting Life
Fixture News

Sky Bet Play-Offs Preview

A look ahead to this weekend's action

10 May 2019

The Sky Bet EFL play-offs are here, with 12 teams all holding aspirations of achieving promotion. Sporting Life’s Tom Carnduff takes a look at the semi-final ties in each of the three divisions.

Four teams are battling it out for their involvement in what is often described as the ‘richest game in football’ – the Sky Bet Championship play-off final.

Leeds’ involvement has upset the typical status quo. with the club often found bouncing around mid-table at this point.

Marcelo Bielsa has managed to guide the Whites to third in the table in his first full season in charge.

Aston Villa and Derby are in for the second consecutive season, while West Brom have secured a top-six spot as many expected following their relegation from the Premier League.

What we have, though, is an incredibly strong line-up, with each of the four teams able to make a case for being good enough to take on England’s elite in August.

The first of the semi-finals is a West Midlands derby, as Aston Villa host West Brom in the first leg before the return fixture at The Hawthorns on Tuesday.

The former have set a club record for most consecutive wins this season with 10 and the fact that run came in the second half of the season means many have put them down as the favourites for the play-offs.

The winning run came to an end in the final week, though. A draw away at Leeds, where Bielsa ordered his players to allow Villa to score in an act of extraordinary sportsmanship, was followed by a defeat to Norwich on the last day.

West Brom’s form hasn't been exceptional, but they are an incredibly difficult side to face at The Hawthorns.

The Baggies have won their past five in front of their own supporters – fantastic form despite the surprise sacking of Darren Moore, which some expected would damage their post-season prospects.

A concern for James Shan will be their record on the road in recent weeks. Before heading to Leeds, they were one of the best away sides in the division, but since that 4-0 hammering at Elland Road, they have won just one away game.

It is three defeats in five on the road since then, which could set this up to be a tie which will be all but decided in the first leg. That said, the circumstances show that it was a difficult run of fixtures.

They faced a Derby side who had to win to secure a play-off spot and the same applied to Bristol City and their play-off aspirations when they travelled there at the beginning of April.

There have also been visits to Reading and Millwall, who were both battling the drop, but the solo win during that time offers hope.

They beat Brentford 1-0 who, despite finishing in 11th, had the third best home record in the division.

Villa’s aspirations have obviously been boosted since that late run, but it'll be intriguing to see how they can bounce back now that has come to an end.

While they are the form team, West Brom have been a constant feature in the top six throughout the campaign.

Waiting for them in the final will be Leeds or Derby. The former are favourites to win the play-offs, although recent form has left some questions.

They have finished the regular season on the back of four winless games, two of those against teams at the bottom who only had 10 men. Bielsa is not worried and will be hoping his squad feel the same.

Leeds have been superb throughout large parts of the campaign, but their issue is putting the ball in the back of the net, despite creating plenty of opportunities.

The one positive going into this tie is the fact they have dominated Derby twice this season already, hammering them 4-1 at Pride Park in the second week of the campaign, while also securing a convincing 2-0 win at Elland Road.

Leeds need to find that spark again and it is there. A lot has changed since those two regular season meetings, which sets it up to be an encounter that could go either way.

In Derby, they take on a team in great form with defeat a rarity at the end of the campaign. Frank Lampard’s debut in management has seen the Rams return to the play-off picture and whatever happens in the end, the four teams can view their seasons as a success.

It is not a certainty, but finishing higher does give you a slightly better chance of success according to the history of this competition.

In 14 play-off finals since the league was re-branded to the Championship, only three teams have failed to make Wembley when securing third (Brighton in 2016, Nottingham Forest in 2010 and Ipswich in 2005).

In 50 per cent of those finals, the team in third has been promoted to the Premier League. Most recently that was Fulham in 2018 and prior to that it was Norwich in 2015, after they beat Middlesbrough at the national stadium.

Blackpool (2010) and West Ham (2005) are the only teams who finished in sixth and went on to win the play-off final.

Probability of success based on recent history
Leeds: 3rd – 7/14
Aston Villa: 5th – 3/14
West Brom: 4th – 2/14
Derby: 6th – 2/14

All eyes will be on Sunderland’s performance in the League One play-offs after missing out on their initial aim of automatic promotion and they face one of the toughest ties available in the division by coming up against Pompey.

Jack Ross’ men were beaten by the Blues in the Checkatrade Trophy final and their opponents were the only team in the top seven who were able to beat the Black Cats in the league.

A team that have picked up points in 41 of their 46 games this season would usually end up promoted, but Sunderland finished in fifth.

Draws held them back throughout the campaign – their 19 being considerably higher than the majority of other teams in League One.

They are the team that most people have followed based on their recent history. With consecutive relegations from the Premier League and Sky Bet Championship, the downfall has been documented for all to see via on-demand TV.

There was the expectation that they would bounce straight back up, but it may not work out like that. The positive is that the club has found itself again, with supporters re-engaging at their lowest point.

It is a tried and tested formula that has worked for teams in the past and Sunderland will have to do the same.

Those that have struggled often benefit from the drop to then get promoted and come back stronger – that is the aim for Ross’ troops.

They are up against three very talented sides, though, who can all make a case for deserving a spot in the Championship next season.

Charlton, Pompey and Doncaster are the other three teams hoping that they will be lifting the trophy at Wembley.

The most intriguing tie comes from Portsmouth v Sunderland – two clubs who would have hoped to have finished higher than their respective positions.

Sunderland can take confidence from the fact not many sides have been able to beat them. They are a tough team to come up against and the ability to avoid defeat is key here.

The Black Cats have proven throughout the season that they can do it, although Pompey are one of the teams who have been able to get past them.

The benefit of that Checkatrade Trophy final is that the one side who make it to the play-off final will have experience of playing on the big stage this season.

That was the main focus of both managers after that game. The silverware was nice to win, but ultimately the primary aim is based on success in the league and the day itself can only benefit in the long run.

In the other tie, Charlton’s fantastic season saw them sneak into third on final day and set up a meeting with Doncaster, who had to wait until game 46 to secure their top-six spot.

Lee Bowyer has managed to keep the Addicks at the top end of the division throughout the course of his managerial career – guiding them to the play-offs last year, which ended in a semi-final defeat against Shrewsbury.

They will be better for the experience, though, and have kicked on with some decent recruitment.

The headline addition has been Lyle Taylor, who has established himself as one of the division’s top strikers during his season at the club.

A defeat to in-form Oxford is the only time they have dropped points in their past eight league games. Since that loss, it has been three wins and 10 goals scored, with none conceded.

This is not just a team hitting form – but a team which has form alongside the consistency shown across a 46-game period.

That is not to say that Doncaster have little chance of progression. Grant McCann has done a fantastic job with a talented group of players. The attacking element has been the most eye-catching, with John Marquis regularly finding the net.

Mallik Wilks has enjoyed a strong loan spell from Leeds, while there has been a balance of goal contribution from the midfield. The concern for Rovers, however, is a lack of consistency throughout the season.

They have been up there in the right part of the table, but results have fluctuated between periods of success and ones with dropped points.

Four wins through September and another run from March into April have been coupled with a five-game spell without victory.

A final day triumph may give them a boost, given how it has been rare form them not to follow up success with at least a draw in the following fixture.

Unlike the Sky Bet Championship, the League One play-offs do not historically favour those who finish as the ‘top seed’.

Using the same criteria (the 14 seasons of the current division structure), the third-placed team have been promoted on only four occasions.

The best position to finish in seems to be fourth, which will be good news for Pompey supporters. That side have gone up five times, most recently Rotherham last season.

Bad news for Sunderland – the play-offs do not favour those who finish fifth. Just two teams who have ended in that position have been promoted to the Championship – Sheffield Wednesday in 2005 and Barnsley in 2006.

Doncaster are the outsiders, but recent history has shown how those who end in sixth can finish as the winners.

Millwall (2017) and Barnsley (2016) are two teams who have finished the lowest of the four sides, but earned their spot in the Championship.

They also join Scunthorpe in 2009, as being the sixth-placed teams who would end up promoted.

Probability of success based on recent history
Pompey: 4th – 5/14
Charlton: 3rd – 4/14
Doncaster: 6th – 3/14
Sunderland: 5th – 2/14

While history should not be looked into with great detail when deciding a play-off winner, it does show us how the League Two competition is usually the most open.

The phrase you hear the most around the time of the play-offs is that it is a ‘lottery’. To some extent it is, but form and consistency across the season play a bigger part, although this division supports the cliché.

The final day decided who would finish fourth and who would come in seventh. Newport managed to snatch that last spot with a late tap-in from Jamille Matt, while Mansfield were beaten by MK Dons, who leapfrogged them into the automatic promotion spots.

It is the opposite of the other divisions here, with those who finish the lowest of the four teams having the better chance of success.

In the past 14 finals, the team who ended seventh have won on five occasions, most recently Blackpool in 2017 and then AFC Wimbledon the season before.

It is then a straight split between the other three positions. In the remaining nine finals, it has worked out that three teams in each position have secured promotion.

You have to go back to Fleetwood in 2014 for the last side to finish fourth and get promoted. While we often see the top seed in the final in the Championship, it is common for them not to reacho Wembley in League Two.

There are obviously the five teams who were beaten along the way by those in seventh. They are joined by Shrewsbury (2011), Bury (2009) and MK Dons (2007) as being the eight fourth-placed clubs not to reach the final.

That will give Newport fans some optimism, although it highlights just how much of a lottery the League Two play-offs typically are.

Probability of success based on recent history
Newport: 7th – 5/15
Forest Green: 5th – 3/15
Tranmere: 6th – 3/15
Mansfield: 4th – 3/15

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